Basketball 2nd Chance Points:
by Prof. Roberto Azar - July 15, 2011
Out of USA statistics, second chance points doesn't appears in the classical stats sheet that you know and are used to, still today. But they appears in a central manner at the Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis eBA System, and are analyzed by original play, seconds to go and players involved in the play.
Another important contribution of the eBA System is to take the second chance points not only as a stats quantity, but as a percentage of the total of rebounds taken, offensive and defensive, own and opponents.
• Posesiones Extras & Diferencial en RebOf
The most significant source of bonus possessions in basketball is offensive rebounding. Consequently, when the game ends, the difference in the total possessions generally indicates the difference in the offensive rebound from both teams.
Every offensive rebound produces a bonus possession, and the team that assures the most offensive rebounds in a game can manage the net bonus possessions to overwhelm some of the effects of unsatisfactory shooting or common turnovers.
In like manner, the team with fewer offensive rebounds in a game must give a performance in a more efficient manner than their opponent to have any opportunity to win the basketball game.
A team that systematically gets 4 more offensive rebounds than its opponents will have benefit from an average of 4 bonus possessions per game. If a team scores 0.9 to 1.1 ppp (points per possession), four bonus possessions in a game supplies a 4 point advantage when every other categories are equal.
Many game analysts and coaches do not understand the importance of the offensive rebounding differential. By contrast, taking all the different aspects of a situation into account, the second chance possessions that a team gain through its offensive rebounding may be the most generative kind of possessions that a team can have benefit from.
The eBA Basketball Statistics Creative Analysis classifies possessions looking at the efficiency of the team in its first shot attempts and its second or any other number chance points. The eBA game collecting and evaluating data system give us the total second or any other chance points related to the number of offensive rebounds.
The point production may be significantly higher for second chance possessions than first chance possessions. But it is clear that no team will always have this higher efficiency output. Therefore, some teams defend against second chance possessions better than others. From this fact, the second chance efficiency is an important factor required to fix the value of the offensive rebounding bonus possessions.
• 2nd. Chance Points Effectiveness
When a team shoots a high percentage from the floor, the number of second chance opportunities will distinctly be smaller, but the efficiency of the second chance possession is not a function of the number of second chance opportunities in a game.
Consequently, if teams have higher efficiency during second chances than first chances, a team's game efficiency, taking all the different aspects into account, is nearly always increased only because the offensive rebounding. By contrast, since that relationship appears alternating, the important objective of collecting and evaluating data is in the bonus possessions produced by the net offensive rebounding differential.
A well balanced team would be more effective on second chance points than on first chance points because, on most first chance possessions, the defense is accomplished and the offensive team must attack the set defense to find their scoring opportunities. In whatever manner, with possessions that go on with an offensive rebound, the defense is often lacking order at the instant of the rebound, and these possessions often end with either a foul (the most effective method of scoring) or a tap-in or other relatively easy shot.
Only when the offensive team decides to withdraw the ball back out following an offensive rebound and run its half court offense would the defense have an opportunity to reset itself.
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage
In the circumstance that a team does miss a shot, it can prolong its possession and give itself an additional chance to score by rebounding its own misses. Scoring this points are called "second chance points". We use the following formula for this stat:
Oreb% = Offensive Rebounds / (Offensive Rebounds + Opponent's Defensive Rebounds)
In this way, we only measure how many rebounds our team catches based on what's obtainable. We use this method instead of another, by example, "team offensive rebounds per game" which will give us "a good offensive rebound team" when a team that shoots 30% and probably catches a lot of offensive rebounds, whether they're a good rebounding team or not. Applying Oreb%, we're looking at a ratio of how many rebounds our team grabbed compared to how many were accessible.
Rebound rate (RbR):
(Total Rebs * (Team MP / 5)) / (MP * (Team Total Rebs + Opp Ttotal Rebs)) * 100
Rebound rate is an estimate of the percentage of missed shots a player rebounded while he was on the floor.
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