by Prof. Roberto Azar - August 31, 2011
Preliminaries about the Time Played Concept:
To relate player's valuation with his minutes played will give us his "efficiency", degree of cooperation into the team and with his teammates, interesting factor for the basketball coach, the player and the game analyst.
The team's 'efficiency' per minute is obtained by dividing the valuation points, taken from the statistics, by the possible play minutes ( 40 or 48 ) and the mean of player's efficiency per minute by dividing newly by 200 or 240 (total minutes played by 5 players on the court).
About the Fundamentals:
Per minute stats are a good manner to compare players within a team, seeing how a player off the bench might fare compared to the player in front of him in the rotation, but we must be careful about players who scarcely play - Jackie
Butler may have averaged 96 points per 48 in the 5 minutes he played for the Knicks last year, but very doubtful he could have achieved it. Also, we must be careful comparing players from one team to another.
Per-48 Stats is not meant to be a statistical projection of what a player would average if he played 48 minutes per game. Keep in mind that it is simply an expression of per-minute
When comparing players using per-48 stats, remember that the larger the difference in minutes played, the less reliable the comparison will be. Although eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis System uses this method, on the later
same idea: the fewer minutes a player has played, the less likely his per-48 stats are to
reflect what he'd do in extended time.
For some reports, the eBA System uses the time terms of basically 48 or 40 , and 36 and 30 minutes average in this formula to give a more real expectation of what the person would
add as a starter - see below.
About the Formula:
This allows for a level playing field in analogy of low-minute reserves (as long as they've played a fair number of minutes; most cut-offs are 250 or 500 minutes for the season) and starters. Sometimes, you'll hear this referred to as a player's rate; his "scoring rate", for example, would be points per minute.
Traditionally, this rate is multiplied by the 40 or 48 minutes in a game so the numbers
make more sense.
The rating for each player is then adjusted to a per-minute basis, so that, for example,
you can compare subs with starters , and also normalized for the team's pace.
About the Numbers:
|AVERAGES||MP||Points||FG||p/min||p/30 m||p/40 m||Per 48 m|
|Player A1||38||26.1||6.2/ 9.1||0.68||20.4||27.2||32.9|
After this you have Player A2 averages 22.2 points per 38, but that's why you need to look at the other stats as well - it took Player A1 minus 1.5 shot per 38 to get those 4.9 more points per 48. Among others, this cases will be discussed and analyzed in our next clinic.
Assists are deceived because they are excessively devoted to the factor by how well the player's teammates can shoot and by how much the player touch the ball on offense : many point guards are like baseball's closers: overrated because a stat measures the role are lucky to be assigned to. Steals do a much better job of putting in terms of numbers how good the player's quickness and court vision is.
Looking at points per shot and shooting percentage is very problematic for reasons it was already said - see above, that is to say because the bum center that goes 3 for 6 every game couldn't come anywhere close to keeping that percentage up if he took more shots. If he could he wouldn't be shooting so infrequently.
As a particular one of several possibilities, they often get baffled with very difficult shots at the end of the shot clock when no one else could find anything. Shooting percentages
are also more dependent on teammates. Better teammates make player percentage artificially
higher, but they will reduce the number of shots you take, so points per 48 minutes is a
more accordant with fact and less teammate dependent measure than shooting percentage.
Why sometimes you propose the per 40 minute statistics analysis instead of per 48 minute stats, meanwhile in another articles or formulas in the eBA Basketball Statistics Analysis Clinics you use the later: per 48 minutes Statistics ?
Which are the pros of each method ?
1 - Regulation games in the NBA are 48 minutes in length, meanwhile in FIBA and ULEB are 40 minutes in length, so nor choice is arbitrary.
2 - Most statistics sites that present per minute statistics indicate them per 48 minutes.
3 - At 48 minutes games, forty minutes is approximately the maximum we can expect a player to play, meanwhile at 40 minutes games the maximum expected is 36 minutes.
4 - I prefer per-40 statistics a lot more than per-48 because no player is going to play 48 minutes a game and per-40 numbers swing better with the scale for points per game, whereas those extra 8 minutes can really make per-48 numbers look exaggerated.
5 - 40 minute numbers give an idea of what a player could possibly average if he play hot minutes.
6 - At 48 minutes games, the average starter goes 32 minutes per game in the season and 36 in the playoffs, meanwhile at 40 minutes games the averages are 30 and 33 minutes.
7- Those are the reason why the eBA System runs also 36 minutes players stats which really matches to when we want to see how a
player draws a projection over starter-type minutes even better than per-40 or per-48.
From Another Point of View:
This exposition will be completed with a 2nd. Part which will be dedicated to the "PLUS MINUS RATINGS".
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